Egzanp pa-a-pa: enn lapre-midi D’Alembert
Enn inite an plis apre enn pert, enn inite an mwins apre enn gin, rouz sak tour pandan san tour. Sistem pli dou, ek seki sa douser-la kout.
Enn sesion D’Alembert simile lor 100 tour a $5 par inite. Miz-la inn retourn a $5 sink fwa, inn mont dousman ziska $80 pandan enn move pasaz, ek inn fini a $55 avek sesion-la dan pert $40. Sistem ki donn linpresion balans, me ki pa balans.
Swiv sistem-la
Enn pert monte enn letap. Enn gin retourn enn letap an arye.
Miz ek rezilta an inite miz de baz.
Plan-la
Koumans avek enn initelarzanIniteMiz baz ki enn sistem ouswa enn zwer servi. Bann progresion dekrir an inite pou ki zot aplik lor nenport ki latab.Lir tou →, $5, lor rouzpariRouzPari peman egal lor 18 nimero rouz. An franse: rouge.Lir tou →. Apre enn pert azout enn inite; apre enn gin tir enn, zame anba enn. Teori-la, ki d’Alembert pa finn propoze me ki zot met lor so ledo, dir ki gin ek pert balanse, alor pou sak per enn pert ek enn gin nou gagne enn inite. Laritmetik dir ki rouz gagne 48.65% bann tour, alor pert depas gin par apepre enn lor karant, ek miz-la mont dousman avek letan.
Tour 1–30
Katorz rouz, kinz nwarpariNwarPari peman egal lor 18 nimero nwar. An franse: noir.Lir tou →, enn zerorouZeroSel kaz ver ki okenn pari peman egal, douzenn ouswa kolonn pa kouver; sours lavantaz kazino. Osi: enn sel zero, 0.Lir tou →. Miz-la inn mont ziska $20 pandan enn seri trwa pert, inn retourn a $5 o tour 18, ek inn mont ziska $25 a lafin sa bout-la. Net +$20. Sak per pert-gin inn donn enn inite net kouma promet; bann pert an plis inn manz zot. Li paret kouma enn ti pomp dousman ki marse preski tou letan.
Tour 31–65
Move pasaz-la. Trez rouz kont ven-de ki pa rouz, ladan enn seri set pert. Depi $5 o tour 41 miz-la inn mont enn inite par enn inite ziska $80, ek sak pert $75 inn defer kinz ti gin $5 ki ti vinn avan. Net −$485 pou sa bout-la; total ziska la −$465. Nanye dramatik pa finn arive lor okenn tour; se sa montes dousman-la ki finn fer li.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- medyann −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Tour 66–100
Ven rouz kont kinz ki pa rouz, miz-la pe desann depi $80 ver $55 par pa $5. Sak gin lor enn gro miz inn rekipere vre larzan: enn gin $75 apre enn pert $70, se per-la ki donn +$5 net, me per-la gro. Net +$425 pou sa bout-la; final −$40.
Bann kont
Miz mwayenn apepre $37, alor total parye apepre $3,670 kont $500 pou enn zwer avek miz fix $5. Pert atandimatematikPert atandiValer atandi miltiplie par total larzan ki ou parye; montan mwayen ki ou perdi lor enn sesion ouswa enn peryod.Lir tou → lor $3,670 se $99; vre rezilta −$40, anba enn ekar-tipmatematikEkar-tipRasinn kare varyans; distans tipik ant enn rezilta ek valer atandi.Lir tou →. Sa montes dousman dan gro miz-la, se tou lefe sistem-la: plis larzan lor latab, mem 2.70% ki tir lor sak dolar, enn distribision rezilta pli larz.
Seki sesion-la montre
D’Alembert se erer zwer ekrir kouma enn regleman pou parye: li sipoze ki gin ek pert pou egalize ase vit pou ki miz-la redesann. Zot egalize lor enn long dire par dilision, pa par koreksion, ek miz-la pena okenn rezon pou retourn a enn inite. Se enn sistem dousman san falez, ek se sa lanter-la ki fer zwer krwar ladan.
Kestion
Rarman. Miz-la grandi enn inite par pert, li pa doub, alor bizin enn move seri byen long pou ariv limit-la.
Wi, ek plafon-la transform li an miz fixstrateziMiz fixParye mem montan sak tour. Referans ki ou konpar sak progresion avek li.Lir tou → o nivo plafon apre enn move seri. Nenport ki plafon bon; okenn pa sanz lavantaz-la.
An 1754 li ti dir ki pil vinn pli probab apre enn seri fas. Bann zwer ki ti dakor inn donn sistem-la so nom. Li ti pou ena larontman.
Enpe riye
Sistem pli dou. Li mont dousman olie tonbe dan enn falez.
Sours
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.