LABOLEXPERYANS 06df = 36α = 0.05lagrenn 99

Defo rou roulet

Enn rou roulet ki ena defo favoriz serten kaz akoz enn defo fizik: enn separasion kaz ki lak, enn rotor ki pa egal, bann kaz ize. Defo rou roulet egziste e dimounn inn deza profite. Difikilte-la se ki enn rou parfetman zis donn “nimero so” tout letan, alor kestion-la zame se eski enn nimero so, me eski tou form-la pli dezekilibre ki lasans permet.

1. Pran enn lesantiyon lor enn rou zis

Tour tire lor enn rou simile ki pena okenn defo ditou. Sanz tay lesantiyon ek get kaz pli so-la.

tour370

atandi par kaz10.0

kaz pli so20 · 16 fwa (4.32%)

pli so kont atandi+60% · 1.9σ

ki-kare · p32.8 · 0.622

verdikpena okenn prev defo

2. Seki nou observe kont seki nou atann

Sak bar se enn kaz dan lord lor rou. Lign an pwintiye-la se nonb atandi, n/37. Bann zonn ki ombre se ±2 ekar-tip: lor enn rou zis, apepre enn kaz lor ven pou depas li zis par lasans.

0kaz dan lord lor rou →26

3. Test ki-kare

Test-la adisionn ziska kot sak kaz lwin ar seki nou atann, o kare ek met a lesel. Lor enn rou zis, sa som-la swiv enn distribision ki-kare avek 36 degre liberte; enn valer p anba 0.05 konvansionelman apel sinifikatif.

χ² = Σ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ Eᵢ = n/37 df = 36
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622

Avertisman lor tay lesantiyonAnba apepre 1,000 tour test-la pena preske okenn pwisans pou detekte bann defo realis, e enn rezilta “sinifikatif” a p < 0.05 pou arive par lasans dan 1 lor sak 20 lesantiyon zis ki ou get. Teste boukou rou, ouswa reteste mem rou-la ziska li pase, garanti bann fos pozitif.

4. Konbie tour ou ti pou bizin

Tour ki bizin pou detekte enn kaz ki sorti pli souvan ki 1/37, a enn nivo 5% dan enn sel sans avek enn pwisans 80%. Enn kaz ki sorti 1 fwa lor 35 olie 1 lor 37 ti pou enn gro lavantaz pou enn zwer, e bizin plizir dizenn milye tour anrezistre pou konfirm li.

vre tolavantaz zwertour ki bizina 40 tour/er

1 lor 25+44.0%1,10828 er

1 lor 30+20.0%4,392110 er

1 lor 33+9.1%15,747394 er

1 lor 35+2.9%69,4611,737 er

Pou konfirm enn defo, bizin anrezistre tour laswar apre laswar, plizir dizenn milye.

Metodolozi

Lesantiyonaz. Tiraz iniform lor 37 kaz avek enn zenerater ki ena lagrenn fix (mulberry32, lagrenn 99), pou ki paz-la kapav reprodir.

Test. Test ki-kare Pearson pou ladekasion, 36 degre liberte, valer p kalkile avek fonksion gamma enkonple regilarize.

Pwisans. Aproksimasion normal enn test lor enn sel proporsion, α = 0.05 dan enn sel sans, pwisans 0.80.

Sant. Zis deteksion statistik. Koz fizik ek analiz par sekter (olie par kaz) eksplike dan Analiz sekter.

Enpe riye

Enn rou zis fer nimero so sak laswar. Pou prouv enn defo, bizin plizir dizenn milye tour.

Sours

Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Sap. 13, Roulette.